How to Bet Over/Under: Mastering the Basics
How to Bet Over/Under: Mastering the Basics
Everyone knows how much fun it can be picking winners in sports betting. Whether you’re taking points or just betting the straight moneyline, there’s nothing quite like the thrill of being right (especially if it means Vegas was wrong).
But what if you have no idea who will win, or you think the lines are dead-on? Should you take an unnecessary gamble, or (gasp) sit the game out entirely?
As it turns out, you’re in luck. There’s another way to bet on games that doesn’t involve picking winners but simply guessing how many points will be scored. It’s called over/under betting (or totals betting), and it’s secretly one of the most fun wagers you can make.
If you thought that tense, low-scoring games or frantic, high-octane scorefests were exciting, just wait until you have a little money riding on the total. Keep reading to learn all about how to bet the over/under right here at Fanatics Sportsbook.
What Is a Total and How to Bet an Over/Under
In a totals bet, we will set a line representing what we think will be the total number of points scored (by both participants) in a particular game.
Bettors can then decide whether they think the number is too high, in which case they’d bet the under, or too low, in which case they’d take the over.
It’s straightforward and doesn’t take any special knowledge of either team (although more knowledge certainly helps).
Identifying a Totals Bet
When you pick a game to wager on, you’ll likely see three different bets prominently displayed: the spread, the moneyline, and the total.
The total is usually the last one listed, and it will feature three different numbers. The first is the total itself, and the next two are the prices we have listed for both the over and under. In a football game, it might look something like this:
Total: 45.5 O: (-110) U: (-110)
The O and U represent the over and under, respectively. Most of the time, both sides of the bet will be listed at (-110); you must risk $110 to win $100.
They do this because they feel either side of the bet is equally likely; it’s a true coin flip. Thus, they try to get an equal amount of money bet on both sides, allowing them to collect the vig (the extra $10 you must wager) and make out like bandits.
Totals will usually have a half-point attached as well. This is called “the hook” and it’s there to prevent ties.
So, in the example above, if you bet the over and the final score was 27-24, you would win the bet (27 + 24 = 51). Conversely, if the final score was 24-21, you would lose (24 + 21 = 45), all because of that blasted hook.
How to Read Over/Under Odds
As mentioned above, most odds are (-110) on both sides, but that’s not always true. Sometimes, one side will have better odds — in the form of reduced juice — so that one will be (-105) or something similar. This is because a lot of money is coming in on one side, and they want to limit their risk by balancing the bets.
Thus, they’ll give you a better deal if you pick the less popular side of the total. You would only have to risk $105 to win $100.
What if There's a Tie
Also, you may see some instances in which the total is a whole number, without a hook. In that case, the possibility of a tie increases dramatically. The bet is declared a push if a tie happens, and everyone’s money is returned.
Again, this tie only applies to the total points scored in the game; it doesn’t mean the game ends in a tie. If the total is set at 45 and the final score is 24-21, the total bets will be declared a push.
Over/Under Betting by Sport
While the mechanics of a total bet are the same across all sports, unique factors are involved in each one. This mainly concerns the amount of scoring involved; a basketball game has much more scoring than a baseball game. Below, we’ll explain how total bets work for all the major sports.
Football (NFL & College)
In football games, the totals are typically in the 40s or 50s, depending on the participants. If it’s likely to be a defensive struggle, the number can dip into the 30s, whereas a matchup between two high-scoring teams could be in the 70s and beyond.
For most contests, though, expect a line like 47.5. Many of the most common scoring totals, such as 24-21, 28-20, 31-14, and so on, will be in that range.
In a football game, many things can affect the scoring. Beyond the teams' styles, things like how healthy the teams are, home field advantage, and even the weather forecast can impact the number of points scored.
Basketball (NBA & College)
Basketball has the most scoring of all the major sports, and the totals reflect that. For NBA games, totals are usually in the 210-240 range, while college basketball matchups are often in the 140-170 range.
That means you’d potentially see a line like 221.5 in a matchup between the Suns and Lakers, or 155.5 in a Duke-North Carolina game.
As with football betting, the pace of play is the most significant factor affecting totals. Teams that like to run fast breaks or shoot 3s will probably have higher totals on average, whereas tough-minded defensive squads will bring those totals down.
Baseball (MLB)
Besides soccer, baseball is one of the lowest-scoring sports around. Totals here are usually in the 7-9 range on average. In a matchup between two average teams, expect to see a total like 8.5.
Two major factors affect totals in baseball: the starting pitchers and the ballparks. Strong starting pitchers usually reduce scoring, whereas a team’s fifth starters tend to give up more runs.
Also, some stadiums are known as “hitter’s ballparks” because they are easy to score in; Coors Field in Colorado is one such stadium.
Conversely, other places are "pitcher’s ballparks,” such as Oracle Park in San Francisco; the fences there are deeper than in different stadiums, and the humid air off the bay often causes would-be home runs to die in the outfield.
Hockey (NHL)
Hockey is another low-scoring sport, and most games have lines set around 5.5 or 6.5 goals. There aren’t as many variables in hockey that can affect scoring as in other sports. For example, all the rinks have the exact dimensions (unlike baseball stadiums), and the weather is never a factor (unlike in football).
As a result, the main things affecting hockey scoring are the goalies and teams involved. A team with a weak goalie will probably have higher totals than one with a brick wall minding the net.
Some teams score more goals than others, which is reflected in their totals. Other factors to consider are the health of both teams, their relative freshness, and the quality of each team’s power play or penalty-killing lines.
Soccer (MLS & international)
Soccer tends to be the lowest-scoring sport, and most totals are in the 2.5-3.5 range. It’s one of the few sports in which ties are common, even 0-0 ones.
It’s also one of the few sports teams that often plays not to lose rather than to win. There are often situations when a team merely needs a tie to advance in a tournament; in these situations, scoring is likely to be greatly reduced.
Beyond that, soccer is vulnerable to factors that affect other sports, such as team quality, play style, and weather conditions.
Factors That Affect Over/Under Bets
As we’ve seen, the factors that affect over/under bets can vary depending on the sport. Still, some things are fairly universal, which we’ll cover in more detail below.
Offensive and Defensive Quality
One of the most significant factors affecting scoring is the quality of the offenses and defenses involved in the game. Some teams score way more points than their peers, while others have lockdown defenses that limit scoring.
If a team with a great offense faces one with a bad defense, expect scoring to go through the roof. A great defense versus a bad offense often means points will be at a premium. And things could go either way when you have a great offense against a great defense.
The likely outcome depends on the sport as well. In basketball, great offenses are almost always able to overcome great defenses. However, in sports like soccer, a suffocating defense can usually shut down even the most prolific offenses.
Injuries
It’s not a big secret that starters are better than bench warmers. If a few key starters for one team are out, their quality of play is likely to dip, and their scoring is expected to go down.
That’s especially true if the injury concerns someone playing a key position. If you have a backup goalie in soccer or hockey, that can dramatically impact scoring. The same goes for backup quarterbacks, point guards, pitchers, and more.
Pace of Play
Some teams like to play much faster than others, and the ones that usually score more points. For example, a football team that runs a no-huddle passing offense tends to score more points than one that controls the clock with a punishing ground game.
Likewise, a basketball team that likes to run the fast break will fill up the scoreboard much faster than one that likes to slow things down and set up plays.
Weather
In sports that are played in outdoor stadiums, the weather can have a huge impact on scoring. Think about a football game played in the pouring rain. The ball will be hard to catch or hold onto, and players will slip and fall much more. As a result, the offense will struggle to get into the end zone as often as they would on a sunny day.
Weather patterns can change how much scoring occurs as well. At Coors Field in Colorado, the stadium is a mile above sea level, where the air is much thinner. That provides less resistance to fly balls, and many home runs that are hit at Coors Field would have been pop-ups elsewhere.
Venues
Stadiums can reduce or increase scoring beyond the weather patterns that they experience. This is especially true in baseball, as the stadiums aren’t uniform.
Some stadiums are much easier to score in than others, based on how close the outfield fences are or whether there are weird angles or features (like the Big Green Monster in Boston).
Home-field advantage can also play a big role, especially in college sports. Suppose a stadium is known for being incredibly loud (like Autzen Stadium in Oregon or Tiger Stadium at LSU). In that case, it can make it hard for the offense to communicate, reducing their ability to score.
Advanced Over/Under Betting Tips
Now that you know how totals betting works, it’s time to learn the best way to succeed when betting them. Here are some tips to help get you in the black:
Remember the Public Loves to Bet the Over
In most high-profile games (*cough* the Super Bowl *cough*), the public tends to bet the over much faster. That means there’s usually good value in taking the under, especially if you let the line sit for a day or two.
Watch for Line Movement
Speaking of letting the line sit for a little while, it’s essential to notice how they move. Most sharp bettors jump all over totals when they’re first released, which often causes books to move their lines accordingly.
Ideally, you’d be able to grab the line you want before all the smart money moves it; if you can’t get a bet down early enough, it might be smarter to wait a little while and let the “dumb” action have their say.
As noted above, the public tends to bet the over too often, so the longer you wait, the higher the line will likely go.
Use Live Betting to Your Advantage
Carefully set lines can go out the window once the game starts. This causes the lines to move drastically and could create some excellent value where there was none before.
For example, imagine a football game with a high total because one team scores a lot of points. Let’s say the team comes out flat, making a few turnovers and scoring only a few points before halftime.
The total will likely drop significantly, but that team is still great at scoring points. They have a good shot at coming out hot in the second half and could blow past the new total in short order.
Consider Team-Specific Trends
Some teams tend to hit the over or under more often than others. If you spot a team that tends to overperform in one direction, you can use that information to your advantage.
It’s important to realize that this doesn’t necessarily mean that the team itself is high- or low-scoring. It could just be a team that Vegas has trouble getting a bead on for some reason.
Try to follow the results for a few teams throughout a season and see if you can spot any patterns. Finding something like that can be like finding gold, and just as lucrative.
Be Careful with High-Profile Games
Generally, it’s better to become an expert on an obscure team than try to out-guess the bookmakers. The more info the linemakers have, the better they’ll be at zeroing in on the likely total.
If you want to bet on college football, it’s better to pick an obscure team and learn everything about them than to try to beat the lines on the Alabama-Georgia game.
You can bet the big games if you like but remember that the house is the house for a reason — they’re not often wrong.