What is Line Movement in Sports Betting?
Line movement simply refers to the change in a sportsbook's odds, spreads, or totals between the initial release and the start of the game or event.
Shifts in line movement are often caused by external factors including injury news or weather changes, as well as reactions to the market, such as betting volume.
Fanatics Sportsbook offers odds and markets across NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, soccer, and more sports. .
What Does Line Movement Mean?
Line movement in sports betting is the change in a sportsbook's set line on point spreads or totals for a specific event, from the moment the odds are released to the start of the event.
For example, in a game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Atlanta Falcons, the Chiefs could be -3.5 favorites when the market opens, but following some late injury news for the Chiefs, they could drop to -1.5 favorites. This reduction in the point spread line is line movement.
Why Do Sports Betting Lines Move?
Lines move in sports betting for several reasons, including external factors such as team news, as well as betting driven changes and shifts. Here are some of the main reasons behind line movements:
- Team news - injuries, trades, and suspensions can affect betting lines
- Weather - conditions can affect betting lines, particularly in NFL, with wind and snow regular line movers
- Public money - if a large % of the public are betting on a specific bet or selection, the line is likely to move as sportsbooks look to minimize risk and protect themselves
- Sharp money - when professional bettors place large wagers on specific bets or selections, the line is likely to move as this indicates to sportsbooks that their initial line or odds were too generous
Examples of Line Movement
Here's an example of how lines can move ahead of games and events in sports betting.
Game: Boston Celtics @ LA Lakers
Time | Point Spread | Why? |
|---|---|---|
Odds Released (Monday) | Boston Celtics -5.5 | Opening Line |
Tuesday | Boston Celtics -7.5 | Sharp Money |
Gameday (Thursday) | Boston Celtics -8.5 | LA Lakers Injury News |
Reverse Line Movement Explained
Reverse Line Movement (RLM) is when the point or spread line adjusts in the opposite direction to public opinion and betting trends. Typically, if there are a large number of bets on one specific selection, sportsbooks will adjust the line to react to the high betting activity in order to protect themselves and minimize risk.
Reverse Line Movement is when the line moves against the side receiving most of the public bets. If 75% of bets are on the Chiefs -3 but the line drops to Chiefs -2.5, that's RLM - it signals sharp money on the other side, which books weight more heavily than public volume.
Closing Line Value (CLV) and Why It Matters
The Closing Line Value (CLV) is the comparison of how your bet's odds compare to the odds just before the start of a game or event.
Positive CLV is when you placed a bet at odds that were bigger than they are at the closing line, while negative CLV is when you placed a bet at odds that were shorter than they are at the closing line. You should always aim for positive CLV when sports betting, as this leaves no value on the table and is considered to be the best long-term strategy for betting success.
CLV is key to long-term success when betting on sports, as it allows you to get as much value as possible out of your wagers. Beating the closing line is the strongest indicator that your bets hold positive expected value (+EV).
Best Strategies for Betting Line Moves
The key to betting on line moves in sports betting is being able to identify sharp money vs public money. Generally, the public wagers heavily on favorites and overs lines, therefore if the line moves against the public, sharp money could have been placed on the underdogs. It could be a good idea to go with the sharp money in this instance, and follow the professionals.
When betting on lines such as spreads and totals, be sure to shop around to find the best and highest value lines and odds. Fanatics Sportsbook offers competitive odds on spread and totals markets across NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, and more.
It's also wise to place your bets at different times, depending on who you are backing. As public money is generally wagered on favorites, it could be wise to place your favorite or overs bets when markets are first released, as these odds are likely to shorten. Likewise, if you are planning to bet on the underdog or unders line, it could be beneficial to wait, as when the favorites shorten closer to the event, the underdog's odds could increase, potentially providing more value.
Additional Betting Insight & Explainers
The Fanatics Sportsbook blog offers further insight to sports betting markets, terms, and methods, including:
- What Is a Futures Bet? Futures Betting Explained
- What Is a Middle Bet in Sports Betting
- What Is Live Sports Betting?
- What Is a Prop Bet? A Beginner's Guide to Sports Prop Betting
- What Is a Point Spread?
Line Movement FAQs
What causes sports betting lines to move?
There are a wide range of factors that cause betting lines to move, including external factors such as injuries and team news, trades, coaching changes, and weather conditions. Other factors can include market activity, including sharp money bets and general betting trends towards one specific selection.
All of these factors can cause betting lines to shift up or down between the time of release and the start of the event.
What is reverse line movement?
Reverse line movement (RLM) is when a betting line moves in the opposite direction to what betting trends suggest. Usually, increased wagering on a selected market would shorten the odds on that selection, reverse line movement is when increased wagering on a selected market increases the odds on the selection.
Reverse line movement indicates that the sportsbook in question is concerned about action on the opposite side of the bet, often due to sharp money, which are large bets placed by professional gamblers that use analytics and data systems to find mispriced selections.
Should you follow sharp money?
Yes, following sharp money can be a strong long-term betting strategy, as you are essentially following bets placed by professional bettors. However, sharp money often makes sportsbooks react quickly and adjust their odds accordingly, so it can be difficult to place wagers at the same high value odds as professional bettors, potentially taking the value out of your bet.
What is closing line value?
Closing Line Value (CLV) measures the difference between the odds you take when placing a wager and the final odds offered by the sportsbook just before the event begins. CLV indicates whether you have beat the market, and a positive CLV is the strongest predictor of long-term profitability.
Can line movement help you find better bets?
Yes, line movement can help you find better value odds and bets, and achieve Closing Line Value (CLV). Tracking line movement allows you to spot where the sharp money is, providing opportunities to follow professional bettors and wager on the same selections.
Though, it can be difficult to place your bets before the sportsbook reacts to sharp money. Line movement tracking can also allow you to spot instances of Reverse Line Movement.
Reviewed by Fanatics