What is Closing Line Value (CLV) in Sports Betting?
Closing Line Value (CLV) measures the difference between the odds you received when placing a bet and the odds available when the market closes before a game or event begins.
The closing line is the most accurate estimate of a game or events probability, as it takes into account all available information from the days and hours leading up to the event, including injury news, weather, and betting activity.
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What Is Closing Line Value?
Closing Line Value (CLV) refers to the value of a bet by comparing the odds you take when you place a bet vs the odds of the same bet when the line closes pre-game. Comparing your bets to the closing line odds allows bettors to analyze if their bet has a positive or negative CLV.
For example, if you wager on the LA Chargers moneyline at +250 two days before game day, and when the market closes pre-game, the same selection is priced at +230, this means that you have beaten the closing line. Therefore, your bet has a positive CLV.
If you placed the same bet, but the LA Chargers were +270 when the line closed, your bet would have a negative CLV, as you could have got more value on the closing line.
How Closing Line Value Works
CLV works by comparing the odds you take on a bet and comparing them to the odds on the closing line. From here, your bet either has a positive or negative CLV.
Positive vs Negative CLV
Positive
- You placed your bet at better odds than the closing line
- The market moved in your favor after you placed the wager
- Indicates you likely found value before sportsbooks adjusted the odds
- Viewed as a sign of a strong betting process
- Can lead to long-term profitability, even if individual bets lose
Negative
- You placed your bet at worse odds than the closing line
- The market moved against your position after you bet
- Suggests sportsbooks or other bettors disagreed with your wager
- Makes it harder to generate profit over the long run
- A few negative CLV bets are normal, but consistent negative CLV can be a warning sign
CLV Examples
Here are some examples of positive and negative CLV across different markets and sports:
Bet Type | Odds of Your Bet | Closing Line | CLV Result |
|---|---|---|---|
Spread | Boston Celtics -4.5 | Boston Celtics -6.5 | Positive |
Spread | New York Jets +3.5 | New York Jets +5.5 | Negative |
Total Points | Over 59.5 Points | Over 61.5 Points | Positive |
Moneyline | New York Yankees -140 | New York Yankees -120 | Negative |
Why CLV Matters
CLV matters in sports betting because by beating the closing line and ensuring a positive CLV on your bets, you are in a much stronger position to be a profitable sports bettor over the long term. With a positive CLV, you are getting a better price than the final market consensus.
How Sharp Bettors Use CLV
Sharp bettors use CLV in various ways. Sharp bettors tend to bet early, as opening lines are the most vulnerable to mispriced selections. The closer to the event or game, the more variables sportsbooks can utilize to ensure their pricing is as accurate as possible, including injuries, weather, and betting activity.
Sharps also monitor several sportsbooks at the same time in order to take the most favorable spreads and odds in search of positive CLV on their wagers. Tracking CLV is also beneficial for sharp bettors, as this allows them to refine and improve their analytical models and systems.
Improving Your CLV
To improve the CLV on your bets in search of a positive CLV consistently, it's wise to follow some of the methods that sharp bettors use, including betting early, comparing odds across sportsbooks, and tracking CLV for each of your bets.
Betting when lines and markets are first released can allow bettors to react to mispriced selections and find opportunities to grab a positive CLV bet. The closing line is deemed as the most accurate representation of a game's probability, as it incorporates the widest range of factors, such as lineups, betting activity, and weather. Sportsbooks lack some of this information when lines first drop, providing positive CLV opportunities.
Another way to improve your CLV is to compare odds and lines across multiple sportsbooks. By looking across a range of sportsbooks, you can easily spot line and price discrepancies, and react before the sportsbook corrects its odds. The key to beating the CLV is speed, therefore keeping on the pulse of the latest injury news and trades is another way you can beat the closing line and act quickly before sportsbooks react to the news.
Additional Betting Insight & Explainers
The Fanatics Sportsbook blog offers further insight to sports betting markets, terms, and methods, including:
- What Is a Futures Bet? Futures Betting Explained
- What Is a Middle Bet in Sports Betting
- What Is a Prop Bet? A Beginner's Guide to Sports Prop Betting
- What Is a Point Spread?
- What Is Line Movement in Sports Betting?
- What Is Bankroll Management in Sports Betting?
- What Is a Round Robin Bet?
- What Is Sharp Money and Steam Moves?
- What Is a Teaser Bet in Sports Betting?
- What Is a Live Sports Bet?
- What Is the Vig in Sports Betting?
- What Is Cash Out?
Closing Line Value FAQs
What is a good CLV?
A good CLV is a positive CLV, which means the odds you got when you placed your bet are better than the closing line odds. A positive CLV indicates that the market or sportsbook agreed with your bet and adjusted the market accordingly.
Having a positive CLV on sports betting provides the best chance of long-term profitability and ensures you are beating the market consistently.
Does CLV guarantee profit?
No, CLV does not guarantee profit, but having a positive CLV ensures you are getting the best value possible out of your sports bets, therefore, you have the best chance of long-term betting success.
CLV fails to guarantee profit for several reasons, including variance, which means that short-term losses are inevitable, whether you beat the closing line or not. Also, even after beating the closing line, this advantage may not be enough to offset the vig added by sportsbooks, which is a commission added on to each bet.
Why do bettors track CLV?
Bettors track CLV because is it the best indicator of betting ability and long-term betting success and profitability.
As the CLV is considered the most accurate indicator of an event’s true probability, as it takes all factors into account across days and hours before the event, including team news and betting patterns. Tracking CLV allows bettors to gain a clearer view past short-term wins and losses by assessing long-term value.
Reviewed by Joe Dixon